Previous predictions:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Recap: Division Week
As I thought (and as my model would suggest), I went 2-2 on the predictions this past weekend. The expected value of correct predictions with the probabilities I gave was 2.2 correct predictions. So slightly better than a 50-50 shot, but not by much. And with only 4 games being played, the best I can really expect to do is 3-1.
What is interesting is if I look at the Point Difference predictions, the magnitudes were not correct but the signs (positive or negative) were, excepting the 0 point difference which was an OT game. In other words, the Point Difference predictions were 3-1/4-0 if used to predict wins and losses. Similarly, if the predicted team and opponent scores were used to predict wins and losses, these were 4-0. This suggests to me that perhaps I should use more of an "ensemble" of models approach to predicting wins in the future. This may improve overall predictions of wins and losses.
My recent favorites to make it to the Superbowl (Patriots and Panthers) both convincingly won their games this past weekend. However, I got the other two games wrong as the Cardinals beat the Packers and the Broncos beat the Steelers in much closer games.
Next weekend are the championships games: Broncos vs. Patriots and Panthers vs. Cardinals. Most have the Patriots and Panthers picked to win their respective games. What do I say? I'll rerun the numbers at the end of the week with my predictions on what will happen.
Here are the full results of Division Week:
|
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Prob. Win
|
Pred. Team Win
|
Actual Team Win
|
Pred. Team PD
|
Actual Team PD
|
Pred. Team
Score
|
Pred. Opp.
Score
|
Actual Team
Score
|
Actual Opp.
Score
|
Division
|
1/16/2016
|
Cardinals
|
Packers
|
0.461
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
6
|
25
|
24
|
26
|
20
| |
Division
|
1/16/2016
|
Chiefs
|
@
|
Patriots
|
0.349
|
0
|
0
|
-6
|
-7
|
21
|
26
|
20
|
27
|
Division
|
1/16/2016
|
Packers
|
@
|
Cardinals
|
0.539
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
-6
|
24
|
25
|
20
|
26
|
Division
|
1/16/2016
|
Patriots
|
Chiefs
|
0.651
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
7
|
26
|
21
|
27
|
20
| |
Division
|
1/17/2016
|
Broncos
|
Steelers
|
0.488
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
7
|
23
|
20
|
23
|
16
| |
Division
|
1/17/2016
|
Panthers
|
Seahawks
|
0.521
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
7
|
23
|
22
|
31
|
24
| |
Division
|
1/17/2016
|
Seahawks
|
@
|
Panthers
|
0.479
|
0
|
0
|
-2
|
-7
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
31
|
Division
|
1/17/2016
|
Steelers
|
@
|
Broncos
|
0.512
|
1
|
0
|
-3
|
-7
|
20
|
23
|
16
|
23
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Division Week and Playoff Predictions:
Well, the Bengals lost. I got the AFC wrong but the NFC right in the WildCard round. The Bengals were my latest pick to win the Superbowl, so that messes up my previous playoff bracket. Of those teams that are left, who is now my favorite to win the Superbowl? Here are the latest predictions from my model:
Divisional Round:
AFC:
Broncos (1) vs. Steelers (6) -> Steelers (0.512)
Patriots (2) vs. Chiefs (5) -> Patriots (0.651)
Patriots (2) vs. Chiefs (5) -> Patriots (0.651)
NFC:
Panthers (1) vs. Seahawks (6) -> Panthers (0.521)
Cardinals (2) vs. Packers (5) -> Packers (0.539)
Cardinals (2) vs. Packers (5) -> Packers (0.539)
Conference Championships:
AFC:
Patriots (2) vs. Steelers (6) -> Patriots (0.611)
NFC:
Panthers (1) vs. Packers (5) -> Panthers (0.566)
Superbowl:
Patriots (2) vs. Panthers (1) -> Patriots (0.501)
So the model is back to predicting the Patriots to win the Superbowl against the Panthers. However, the probabilities are much closer now. The Superbowl is a tossup in the above scenario. And my point difference and score models don't always agree with the win model on who will win. So I am sure it will be another exciting weekend of close games. Good luck in the divisional round!
Here are the full predictions for Division Week:
Week
|
Date
|
Team
|
Home Away
|
Opponent
|
Probability Win
|
Predicted Team Win
|
Predicted Team Point Difference
|
Predicted Team Score
|
Predicted Opponent Score
|
Division
|
1/16/2016
|
Cardinals
|
Packers
|
0.461
|
0
|
0
|
25
|
24
| |
Division
|
1/16/2016
|
Chiefs
|
@
|
Patriots
|
0.349
|
0
|
-6
|
21
|
26
|
Division
|
1/16/2016
|
Packers
|
@
|
Cardinals
|
0.539
|
1
|
0
|
24
|
25
|
Division
|
1/16/2016
|
Patriots
|
Chiefs
|
0.651
|
1
|
6
|
26
|
21
| |
Division
|
1/17/2016
|
Broncos
|
Steelers
|
0.488
|
0
|
3
|
23
|
20
| |
Division
|
1/17/2016
|
Panthers
|
Seahawks
|
0.521
|
1
|
2
|
23
|
22
| |
Division
|
1/17/2016
|
Seahawks
|
@
|
Panthers
|
0.479
|
0
|
-2
|
22
|
23
|
Division
|
1/17/2016
|
Steelers
|
@
|
Broncos
|
0.512
|
1
|
-3
|
20
|
23
|
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