2015 NFL Game Predictions: WildCard Week and Playoff Predictions

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions:

Week 17
Week 16
Week 15
Week 14
Week 13
Week 11
Week 8
Week 4

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Recap: WildCard Week

2-2.  The expected value was 2.45 correct predictions given the probabilities of winning, so this is as expected.  The AFC teams predicted to win both lost (Bengals and Texans) while the NFC teams predicted to win both won (Seahawks and Packers).  Unfortunately, I had the Bengals going on to win the Superbowl, so this messes up the below bracket quite a bit.  I will update the data and renew my playoff predictions along with the next round of predictions for divisional play later this week.

Biggest Upset: Bengals lost to Steelers (barely)
Biggest Surprise: Seahawks beat the Vikings (barely)

Below are the full results.

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score
WildCard	1/9/2016	Bengals		Steelers	0.541	1	0	2	-2	25	25	16	18
WildCard	1/9/2016	Chiefs	@	Texans	0.472	0	1	-1	30	23	22	30	0
WildCard	1/9/2016	Steelers	@	Bengals	0.459	0	1	-2	2	25	25	18	16
WildCard	1/9/2016	Texans		Chiefs	0.528	1	0	1	-30	22	23	0	30
WildCard	1/10/2016	Packers	@	Redskins	0.808	1	1	9	17	30	23	35	18
WildCard	1/10/2016	Redskins		Packers	0.192	0	0	-9	-17	23	30	18	35
WildCard	1/10/2016	Seahawks	@	Vikings	0.578	1	1	1	1	24	22	10	9
WildCard	1/10/2016	Vikings		Seahawks	0.422	0	0	-1	-1	22	24	9	10

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WildCard Week and Playoff Predictions:

At long last we are now into the playoffs.  In previous posts (here, here, and here) I made predictions about who would make it into the playoffs.  Before week 13, I believed this would be our picture:

• AFC: Patriots, Bengals, Broncos, Chiefs, Steelers, and Colts.
• NFC: Panthers, Vikings, Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Falcons

The Patriots I believed would win the Superbowl.  Before week 15, I revised my predictions slightly to the following:

• AFC: Patriots, Bengals, Chiefs, Colts, Steelers, and Broncos.
• NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Packers, Eagles, Seahawks, and Vikings.

The Patriots were still predicted to win the Superbowl.  Well, the Colts are out and the Texans are in in the AFC.  In the NFC, neither the Falcons nor Eagles made it while the Redskins did.  The seeding is now as follows:

• AFC: Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Texans, Chiefs,  and Steelers.
• NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Vikings, Redskins, Packers, and Seahawks.

 So who now is my favorite to win it all?  Here is what I see playing out:

Wildcard Round:

AFC:

Bengals (3) vs. Steelers (6) -> Bengals (0.541)
Texans (4) vs. Chiefs (5) -> Texans (0.528)

NFC:

Vikings (3) vs. Seahawks (6) -> Seahawks (0.578)
 Redskins (4) vs. Packers (5) -> Packers (0.808)

Note: I am sure that my model is biased against the Redskins on account of their being out of the playoffs for so long.  The probability of winning for the Packers is likely much closer to 0.50 in a "perfect" model.

Divisional Round:

AFC:

Broncos (1) vs. Texans (4) -> Broncos (0.539)
Patriots (2) vs. Bengals (3) -> Bengals (0.533)

NFC:

Panthers (1) vs. Seahawks (6) -> Panthers (0.568)
Cardinals (2) vs. Packers (5) -> Packers (0.537)

Conference Championships:

AFC:

Broncos (1) vs. Bengals (3)  -> Bengals(0.623)

NFC:

Panthers (1) vs. Packers (5) -> Panthers (0.591)

Superbowl:

Bengals (3) vs. Panthers (1)  -> Bengals (0.521)

The Bengals will win the Superbowl.  This playoff scenario is much more interesting than previous predictions.  I am inclined to think that the Packers will not in fact beat the Cardinals if they do end up playing each other, but the other match ups and outcomes I find quite plausible.  In any case, it should be an exciting postseason.  Good luck to your team!

Here are the full predictions for WildCard Week:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Probability Win	Predicted Team Win	Predicted Team Point Difference	Predicted Team Score	Predicted Opponent Score
WildCard	1/9/2016	Bengals		Steelers	0.541	1	2	25	25
WildCard	1/9/2016	Chiefs	@	Texans	0.472	0	-1	23	22
WildCard	1/9/2016	Steelers	@	Bengals	0.459	0	-2	25	25
WildCard	1/9/2016	Texans		Chiefs	0.528	1	1	22	23
WildCard	1/10/2016	Packers	@	Redskins	0.808	1	9	30	23
WildCard	1/10/2016	Redskins		Packers	0.192	0	-9	23	30
WildCard	1/10/2016	Seahawks	@	Vikings	0.578	1	1	24	22
WildCard	1/10/2016	Vikings		Seahawks	0.422	0	-1	22	24