2015 NFL Game Predictions: Week 17

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

Previous predictions:

Week 16
Week 15
Week 14
Week 13
Week 11
Week 8
Week 4

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Recap Week 17:

11-5.  Much better than last week.  With the probabilities I listed the expected outcome was 10 correct predictions (20% likely).  11 correct predictions was 19% likely.  To my surprise, the 49ers did beat the Rams, and the Seahawks clobbered the Cardinals.  But the Redskins did in fact beat the Cowboys.  Biggest upset: Patriots lost to the Dolphins.

Full results are below.  On to the playoffs!

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Week 17:

Happy New Year!  Still no new code changes.  As we are soon moving into the playoffs, new code changes will likely have to wait until the offseason unless I have more time than expected in the month of January.  Below are the predictions according to my current models.

Oddities and Bold Predictions:

-49ers predicted to beat Rams, but I am inclined to think this is wrong.  I'd pick the Rams over the 49ers.  The Rams play really well in the division.

-Seahawks predicted to beat the Cardinals.  However, since the Seahawks looked really bad last week and the Cardinals have been so consistently good, I think the model is probably wrong in this prediction.  Of course, as a Seahawks fan, I hope my model is correct.

-Cowboys predicted to beat the Redskins.  This also seems incorrect.  Redskins are doing well and Cowboys are not.  I believe the model is biased against teams that haven't made the playoffs in a while, hence, the dislike for the Rams and Redskins.

We shall see.  Good luck in Week 17!

Here are the predictions for Week 17:

Week	Date	Team	Home Away	Opponent	Prob. Win	Pred. Team Win	Actual Team Win	Pred. Team PD	Actual Team PD	Pred. Team Score	Pred. Opp. Score	Actual Team Score	Actual Opp. Score
17	1/3/2016	49ers		Rams	0.637	1	1	1	3	23	19	19	16
17	1/3/2016	Bears		Lions	0.383	0	0	-7	-4	20	25	20	24
17	1/3/2016	Bengals		Ravens	0.668	1	1	5	8	23	17	24	16
17	1/3/2016	Bills		Jets	0.465	0	1	3	5	21	18	22	17
17	1/3/2016	Broncos		Chargers	0.58	1	1	5	7	24	20	27	20
17	1/3/2016	Browns		Steelers	0.319	0	0	-5	-16	19	24	12	28
17	1/3/2016	Buccaneers	@	Panthers	0.237	0	0	-7	-28	20	28	10	38
17	1/3/2016	Cardinals		Seahawks	0.474	0	0	1	-30	24	22	6	36
17	1/3/2016	Chargers	@	Broncos	0.42	0	0	-5	-7	20	24	20	27
17	1/3/2016	Chiefs		Raiders	0.533	1	1	2	6	24	22	23	17
17	1/3/2016	Colts		Titans	0.642	1	1	5	6	22	16	30	24
17	1/3/2016	Cowboys		Redskins	0.774	1	0	8	-11	29	24	23	34
17	1/3/2016	Dolphins		Patriots	0.287	0	1	-5	10	21	26	20	10
17	1/3/2016	Eagles	@	Giants	0.531	1	1	3	5	27	22	35	30
17	1/3/2016	Falcons		Saints	0.615	1	0	3	-3	22	24	17	20
17	1/3/2016	Giants		Eagles	0.469	0	0	-3	-5	22	27	30	35
17	1/3/2016	Jaguars	@	Texans	0.312	0	0	-7	-24	21	27	6	30
17	1/3/2016	Jets	@	Bills	0.535	1	0	-3	-5	18	21	17	22
17	1/3/2016	Lions	@	Bears	0.617	1	1	7	4	25	20	24	20
17	1/3/2016	Packers		Vikings	0.554	1	0	2	-7	24	23	13	20
17	1/3/2016	Panthers		Buccaneers	0.763	1	1	7	28	28	20	38	10
17	1/3/2016	Patriots	@	Dolphins	0.713	1	0	5	-10	26	21	10	20
17	1/3/2016	Raiders	@	Chiefs	0.467	0	0	-2	-6	22	24	17	23
17	1/3/2016	Rams	@	49ers	0.363	0	0	1	-3	19	23	16	19
17	1/3/2016	Ravens	@	Bengals	0.332	0	0	-5	-8	17	23	16	24
17	1/3/2016	Redskins	@	Cowboys	0.226	0	1	-8	11	24	29	34	23
17	1/3/2016	Saints	@	Falcons	0.385	0	1	3	3	24	22	20	17
17	1/3/2016	Seahawks	@	Cardinals	0.526	1	1	-1	30	22	24	36	6
17	1/3/2016	Steelers	@	Browns	0.681	1	1	5	16	24	19	28	12
17	1/3/2016	Texans		Jaguars	0.688	1	1	7	24	27	21	30	6
17	1/3/2016	Titans	@	Colts	0.358	0	0	-5	-6	16	22	24	30
17	1/3/2016	Vikings	@	Packers	0.446	0	1	-2	7	23	24	20	13