2017 NFL Game Predictions: Best Team and Season Recap

Welcome!  I intend this to be an ongoing project of predicting NFL game outcomes, point spreads, and final scores.  My hope is that my models will improve over time as they become more sophisticated and use better data.  I will try to regularly publish predictions to keep myself accountable, and will make observations along the way about what is working and what isn't.  See below for latest updates.  Enjoy!

• Playoffs: Superbowl
• Playoffs: Conference Championships
• Playoffs: Division
• Week 16, 17, Initial Playoffs, Initial Best Team

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Congrats to the Eagles for winning the Superbowl.  Even though they won, were they the "best" team of the season?

Best Team of 2017

If each team played every other team, who would come out on top?  According to my model with the final data, if measured by total probability of wins, the Patriots, Saints, and Vikings take 1, 2, and 3 with about 24 wins out of 32 games.  The Eagles are down in 8th. The Giants, Browns and Buccaneers, take 32,31, and 30.  If measured by total games won, then the Vikings, Eagles, and Saints take 1, 2, and 3, while the Giants, Browns, and Buccaneers take 32,31, and 30. The Patriots take number 4.

• The Patriots have the highest total probability of winning each game when they are predicted to win.  11 of their 32 games have a 90% or greater predicted probability of winning.  However, they are predicted to win fewer times than other teams (i.e., Vikings, Saints, and Eagles).  As such, they are less consistent, prone to have a high probability of winning one week but then losing the next week by a narrow probability.
• The Vikings are predicted to win 8 of their 32 games with a 90% probability or more, and are predicted to win every game.  They appear in both top 3 lists.
• The Saints are predicted to win 9 of their 32 games with a 90% probability or more, and are predicted to only lose to the Eagles and Vikings.  They appear in both top 3 lists.
• The Eagles are only predicted to win 5 of their games with a probability of 90% or more, but are predicted to only lose to the Vikings.  They win a lot, but by narrow margins.

So what can we conclude?  My model relies heavily on win ratio, but also factors in injuries, and given that the Eagles lost their starting QB, I think my model ranked them lower as this usually is detrimental to a team's future success in the season.  Without injuries, my model gave the top spot to the Eagles, and they did win the Superbowl.  Nick Foles was amazing and my model definitely does not give him enough credit as the replacement QB.  The Eagles had the best record until losing Carson Wentz, and probably would have had the best record if Carson Wentz had finished the season.

I think there is a case for any of these four teams to be considered to be the "best" team of the season, but given the foregoing, and even though my model does not quite show it, I think the title is definitely appropriate for the Eagles, all things considered.  The Eagles were the "best" team of the season.  Well done!

Total Probability:

Rank	Team	Expected Value
1	Patriots	24.463
2	Saints	24.045
3	Vikings	24.019
4	Steelers	23.841
5	Panthers	23.441
6	Jaguars	22.743
7	Rams	22.306
8	Eagles	22.135
9	Titans	21.638
10	Chargers	20.112
11	Falcons	19.714
12	49ers	19.393
13	Chiefs	19.081
14	Bills	19.011
15	Seahawks	18.374
16	Lions	17.773
17	Bengals	16.529
18	Cardinals	16.405
19	Ravens	16.299
20	Cowboys	15.162
21	Packers	13.94
22	Bears	12.294
23	Redskins	11.858
24	Dolphins	10.469
25	Jets	9.765
26	Broncos	8.734
27	Colts	7.953
28	Raiders	6.973
29	Texans	6.744
30	Buccaneers	6.282
31	Browns	5.64
32	Giants	4.864

 Total Games:

Rank	Team	Total Wins
1	Vikings	32
2	Eagles	31
3	Saints	30
4	Patriots	29
5	Steelers	28
6	Panthers	27
7	Jaguars	26
8	Rams	25
9	Titans	24
10	Chargers	23
11	49ers	22
12	Falcons	21
13	Bills	20
14	Chiefs	19
15	Seahawks	18
16	Lions	17
17	Bengals	16
18	Ravens	15
19	Cardinals	14
20	Cowboys	13
21	Packers	12
22	Bears	10
22	Dolphins	10
22	Redskins	10
25	Jets	8
26	Broncos	7
27	Colts	6
28	Raiders	5
29	Texans	4
30	Buccaneers	3
31	Browns	2
32	Giants	1

  

 Average Rank:

Rank	Team	AverageRank
1	Vikings	2
2	Saints	2.5
2	Patriots	2.5
4	Steelers	4.5
5	Eagles	5
6	Panthers	5.5
7	Jaguars	6.5
8	Rams	7.5
9	Titans	9
10	Chargers	10
11	49ers	11.5
11	Falcons	11.5
13	Bills	13.5
13	Chiefs	13.5
15	Seahawks	15
16	Lions	16
17	Bengals	17
18	Ravens	18.5
18	Cardinals	18.5
20	Cowboys	20
21	Packers	21
22	Bears	22
23	Redskins	22.5
24	Dolphins	23
25	Jets	25
26	Broncos	26
27	Colts	27
28	Raiders	28
29	Texans	29
30	Buccaneers	30
31	Browns	31
32	Giants	32

Season Recap

 Here are some summary statistics (granted, I only predicted from week 16 onwards):

• Correct Prediction %:
• Whole season (regular and playoffs): 63%
• Regular season: 66%
• Playoffs: 55%
• Statistical significance two-tailed binomial test (95% CI):
• Whole season: 
• p-value:  0.1263
• CI: (0.467,0.770)
•  Regular season:
• p-value: 0.1102
• CI: (0.468,0.814)
• Playoffs:
• p-value: 1
• CI: (0.233,0.832)

My predictions were accurate about 63% of the time.  Given the small number of predictions, this was NOT statistically significant (although in previous seasons with more predictions it was).  Similarly to past seasons, I didn't do so well in the playoffs, but I am not surprised.  The playoffs are much harder to predict as the teams are better, more evenly matched, and there are fewer games to predict so each one counts for more in the percentages.

Conclusion

I wasn't able to do predictions for the whole season given time constraints and other responsibilities.  I don't know what next season will bring, so no promises.  But hopefully I can make predictions for the entire 2018 season and make a few improvements to the model.  We'll see...  Thanks!