NFL 2015: Which Team is the "Best"?: Update

In a previous post, I claimed that the Patriots were the "best" team in the sense that, according to my model, they would have the most wins in a tournament in which every team in the NFL played every other team in the NFL.  Is this still the case?

Using the most recent data, I re-ran the simulation, pitting every team against every other team once and assigning a win to the team most likely to win in the matchup.  There are 32 games total for each team (and playing yourself is a win).  Here are the latest results:

Which team is the "best"? The tops 5 are:

1. Patriots
2. Bengals
3. Panthers
4. Cardinals
5. Steelers

The Patriots are still number one, but the Steelers have moved from 2 to 5.  The Bengals have moved from 3 to 2, the Panthers from 4 to 3, and the Cardinals from 12 to 4.  The Seahawks have moved from 5 to 6.

 Which team is the "worst"?  The worst 5 are:

32. Rams
31. Redskins
30. Jaguars
29. Giants
28. Buccaneers

The Rams are still last at 32, but the Redskins are now at 31 from 30.  The Browns have moved from 31 to 27.  The 49ers from 29 to 26.  The Raiders from 29 to 19.  The Jaguars have fallen from 18 to 30.  The Giants have also fallen from 11 to 29.  The Buccaneers from 22 to 28.

What Factors Matter in Determining This?

Why are the Rams ranked last?  Why are the Patriots first?  The important factors in my model include: team win ratio, opponent win ratio, team point difference, prior year wins and losses, and years since the playoffs for the team and the opponent.   

The Patriots have a great win ratio, great point differences in their games, great prior year wins with few losses, and were in the playoffs last year.  The Rams on the other hand, have a pretty bad win ratio, have pretty bad point differences, they did not do well last year (6-10), and they haven't been to the playoffs since 2004.  So one can understand why the below makes sense, even without seeing the full details.  That is, it is reasonable to rank the teams in this way.

The Latest Full Results:

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses
1	Patriots	32	0
2	Bengals	31	1
3	Panthers	30	2
4	Cardinals	29	3
5	Steelers	28	4
6	Seahawks	27	5
7	Packers	26	6
8	Falcons	25	7
9	Jets	24	8
10	Vikings	23	9
11	Cowboys	22	10
12	Colts	21	11
13	Bills	20	12
13	Texans	20	12
15	Lions	18	14
16	Broncos	17	15
17	Chiefs	16	16
18	Dolphins	15	17
19	Raiders	14	18
20	Ravens	13	19
21	Chargers	12	20
22	Titans	11	21
23	Bears	10	22
24	Saints	9	23
25	Eagles	8	24
26	49ers	7	25
27	Browns	6	26
27	Buccaneers	6	26
29	Giants	4	28
30	Jaguars	3	29
31	Redskins	2	30
32	Rams	1	31