NFL 2015: Who Will Get to the Playoffs and Win the Superbowl? Latest Predictions

In previous posts I have predicted playoff spots, playoff outcomes, and a Superbowl winner.  Much has changed since I made these predictions.  Has this affected my predictions?

Here are the latest projections based on the most recent data.

Playoff Seeding:

By totaling up the predicted wins/losses with previous wins/losses, and by applying tie breaking rules (I think I did it correctly this time), I came up with the below latest projection of teams that will get into the playoffs in the following seeded order:

• AFC: Patriots, Bengals, Chiefs, Colts, Steelers, and Broncos.
• NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Packers, Eagles, Seahawks, and Vikings.

Here are the full projections with notes on the seeding and tie breaking:

Team	Remaining Predicted Wins	Remaining Predicted Losses	Previous Wins	Previous Losses	Total Wins	Total Losses	Conference	Playoffs Seed	Notes
Patriots	3	0	11	2	14	2	AFC	1	division winner
Bengals	3	0	10	3	13	3	AFC	2	division winner
Chiefs	3	0	8	5	11	5	AFC	3	tied head to head with DEN; projected 5-1 in division; division winner
Colts	3	0	6	7	9	7	AFC	4	division winner
Steelers	3	0	8	5	11	5	AFC	5	projected to beat DEN; wildcard
Broncos	1	2	10	3	11	5	AFC	6	tied head to head with KC ; projected 4-2 in division; second in division; projected to lose to Steelers; wildcard
Jets	2	1	8	5	10	6	AFC	7
Texans	2	1	6	7	8	8	AFC	8
Bills	1	2	6	7	7	9	AFC	9
Raiders	1	2	6	7	7	9	AFC	10
Dolphins	1	2	5	8	6	10	AFC	11
Jaguars	0	3	5	8	5	11	AFC	12
Ravens	0	3	4	9	4	12	AFC	13
Browns	0	3	3	10	3	13	AFC	14
Chargers	0	3	3	10	3	13	AFC	15
Titans	0	3	3	10	3	13	AFC	16
Panthers	3	0	13	0	16	0	NFC	1	division winner
Cardinals	3	0	11	2	14	2	NFC	2	division winner
Packers	2	1	9	4	11	5	NFC	3	division winner
Eagles	2	1	6	7	8	8	NFC	4	division winner
Seahawks	2	1	8	5	10	6	NFC	5	beat Vikings; wildcard
Vikings	2	1	8	5	10	6	NFC	6	lost to Seahawks; wilcard
Falcons	2	1	6	7	8	8	NFC	7
Buccaneers	1	2	6	7	7	9	NFC	8
Lions	3	0	4	9	7	9	NFC	9
Bears	1	2	5	8	6	10	NFC	10
Cowboys	2	1	4	9	6	10	NFC	11
Giants	0	3	6	7	6	10	NFC	12
Redskins	0	3	6	7	6	10	NFC	13
Saints	1	2	5	8	6	10	NFC	14
49ers	1	2	4	9	5	11	NFC	15
Rams	0	3	5	8	5	11	NFC	16

Playoff Outcomes:

Assuming the above is correct, we have these teams going into the playoffs in seeded order:

• AFC: Patriots, Bengals, Chiefs, Colts, Steelers, and Broncos.
• NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Packers, Eagles, Seahawks, and Vikings.

Who will come out on top?  These are my latest predictions for how the playoffs will play out.

Wildcard Round:

AFC:

Chiefs (3) vs. Broncos (6) -> Broncos (0.509)
Colts (4) vs. Steelers (5) -> Steelers (0.623)

NFC:

Packers (3) vs. Vikings (6) -> Packers (0.562)
Eagles (4) vs. Seahawks (5) -> Seahawks (0.700)

Divisional Round:

AFC:

Patriots (1) vs. Broncos (6) -> Patriots (0.715)
Bengals (2) vs. Steelers (5) -> Bengals (0.539)

NFC:

Panthers (1) vs. Seahawks (5) -> Panthers (0.538)
Cardinals (2) vs. Packers (3) -> Cardinals (0.544)

Conference Championships:

AFC:

Patriots (1) vs. Bengals (2) -> Patriots (0.551)

NFC:

Panthers (1) vs. Cardinals (2) -> Panthers (0.511)

Superbowl:

Patriots (1) vs. Panthers (1) -> Patriots (0.552)

Conclusion

While the seeding and wildcard spots have changed a bit, the ultimate outcome is still that the Patriots win the Superbowl.  But nearly all of the games have a close to 50-50 chance of either team winning, so it is still anyone's game.