Tuesday, December 8, 2015

NFL 2015: Who Will Win the Superbowl?

Supposing that my predictions for who will get to the playoffs are correct, who will win the Superbowl?  In seeded order, suppose we have the following teams (Note: I realize that this past week's results may have changed things, but supposing they don't...):

  • AFC: Patriots, Bengals, Broncos, Chiefs, Steelers, and Colts
  • NFC: Panthers, Vikings, Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Falcons

I predicted the outcome of each matchup in the playoffs on the way to the Superbowl.  If the predicted team to win always won (which of course won't happen), then the playoffs would play out in the following way.

Wildcard Round:

AFC:

Broncos (3) vs. Colts (6) -> Broncos (0.581)
Chiefs (4) vs. Steelers (5) -> Steelers (0.669)

NFC:

Packers (3) vs. Falcons (6) -> Packers (0.57)
Cardinals (4) vs. Seahawks (5) -> Seahawks (0.58)


Divisional Round:

AFC:

Patriots (1) vs. Steelers (5) -> Patriots (0.585)
Bengals (2) vs. Broncos (3) -> Bengals (0.537)

NFC:

Panthers (1) vs. Seahawks (5) -> Panthers (0.52)
Vikings (2) vs. Packers (3) -> Vikings (0.567)


Conference Championships:

AFC:

Patriots (1) vs. Bengals (2) -> Patriots (0.567)

NFC:

Panthers (1) vs. Vikings (2) -> Panthers (0.565)

Superbowl:

Patriots (1) vs. Panthers (1) -> Patriots (0.559)


So the Patriots would win, again.  Take courage everyone else! This is only 19% likely to happen for the Patriots if the teams are seeded like this.  Lots of teams are still in the running.  And there is still lots of football to be played...  Good luck!






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